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megamike 6 days ago [-]
question: When does all this hit the fan? Been reading for months that gas will rise to astronomical prices. When?
answer: it depends heavily on China. If China were to jump into the global oil market with both feet, prices would shoot upwards. To date they have largely stayed on the sidelines.They have huge amounts of oil in storage. Their behavior so far has been the big surprise. They have been providing a pressure relief valve for the entire globe.
fragmede 6 days ago [-]
I wouldn't call what they're doing "staying on the sidelines". It's a very big thing they're doing to stop global oil prices from shooting up by using up their stockpile for as long as they can. As to why, it's just the... I dunno, Chinese? thing to do. Quietly fix someone else's fuckup and not seek glory. Whatever you want to attribute it to, it's an ethos and makes total sense to some, because things are gonna get fuuuuuucked if gas prices go to the moon.
aprilthird2021 6 days ago [-]
It is to their benefit in several ways:
They can use this ability to keep oil prices down to sort of back up their strategic goals. They could block a strait themselves while taking Taiwan. They could open the stores for concessions in other ways. They can also use this current Iran War to study how the US handles economic problems like oil-inflation. By having their finger on the scale they can push and pull and see how the US reacts in a war scenario.
toomuchtodo 6 days ago [-]
China’s economy depends on exporting to the world, as it will never have enough domestic demand to meet domestic supply. If the global economy crashes from an oil price shock, China goes down with it.
fragmede 6 days ago [-]
Power is better than money though. China is communist in name only now, but they could extract huge concessions out of the rest of the world right now if they wanted to.
toomuchtodo 6 days ago [-]
They could, but they’ll wait, they’re not ready yet. Until then, they’ll continue to electrify their economy, build out domestic energy supply, rebuild their oil inventories from Russia and Iran when able (at below market prices, dominated in yuan, avoiding dollar systems and sanctions) and prepare to take Taiwan as the US continues to weaken itself.
If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens, well, that’s part of what China is rapidly building out their domestic chip industry. China will then have a monopoly on that chip production besides what can be produced in the US and Europe, and have achieved reunification. And who is going to stop them? Nobody, based on the evidence and current trajectories.
DivingForGold 6 days ago [-]
>If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens ...
You can bet that all TSMC chip factories in Taiwan have strategic installs of explosives just for this scenario, China will get nothing, and the US has multiple TSMC chip factories now and will gladly accept Taiwan victims.
toomuchtodo 6 days ago [-]
As mentioned, they won’t need the fabs. They’re spending tens of billions of dollars to advance their own vertical chip industry.
The US just pulled temporary status from hundreds of thousands of Hatians, so I wouldn’t be so confident what the future looks like for Taiwanese refugees in the US.
TLDR China is going to build whatever chip technology they need to accomplish their technology and geopolitical goals. They have the resources, the will, and the time.
The US has a long history of importing scientists, dating back to Vernon von Braun during WWII. It's sad, it's because Hatians aren't TSMC engineers.
toomuchtodo 5 days ago [-]
The US also has a recent history of making it so hostile that they’re exporting scientists to China, Europe, and Singapore (not exhaustive). Hard to predict the future of who will be welcomed, if they’ll be welcomed, for how long, and if they even want to come to the US. There are many better places to go after all.
Bad bet, wanking about TW blowing up their golden goose fabs is US hopium/threat - literally US Army War College insinuated US would blow up fabs to deny PRC while TW politicians/defense minister retorted under no circumstances was that acceptable nor would they evacuate semi talent to US before women and children. Not that they could under PRC blockade/quarantine. The entire notion is fundamentally stupid, TW with fabs is at least useful to PRC and sustains wealth after, or they'd be subsistence pineapple farmers. US has 0 TSMC factories that would operate for long with TW semi sole supplier, Arizonal would grind to halt until US reshores every piece of semi supply chain which even CHIPS ACT didn't pretend US was capable of. Only PRC pursuing end to end full vertical semi integration. TW goes byebye in next few years, PRC will likely be capable of making wholey indigenize 7+nm while entire western semi is fucked because they lost TW inputs. Now consider PRC land based munitions can make anything on TW go byebye in 7 minutes, reality is PRC has maximum semi leverage during war while US has semi leverage during peacetime (lawfare/export controls etc).
acdha 6 days ago [-]
China isn’t trying to crash the global economy but they’re letting prices rise to the point that their EV, solar, and battery companies are seeing huge demand. They don’t want a depression, just acceleration of that trend.
cyanydeez 6 days ago [-]
when the rich people stop talking to their LLMs and realize their hand servants have access to guns.
krapp 6 days ago [-]
They know that. And they know that Americans won't do a damn thing with those guns except shoot one another.
pamircake 6 days ago [-]
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aaron695 6 days ago [-]
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relug 6 days ago [-]
interesting why usa wants to keep escalating, muat be some strat behind it maybe to induce strategical global recession or try and slow down china or something else
thraway3837 6 days ago [-]
Military–industrial complex and Israel.
The Iraq war lasted nearly a decade. Afghanistan 2 decades. And the US accomplished nothing. They made things worse, I don't need to go into details because that is an easy lookup.
That's ultimately the purpose of this war. Israel wants us to fight Iran because "Iran was close to making a nuke", which is an excuse they have been using for nearly 30 years.
Have you seen how much money AIPAC has in US politicians' pockets? Nearly every other office in congress has an Israel flag on their door. Poured $36M (Million) into Haley Stevens. A complete nincompoop and incompetent person, but she would have further supported Israel's agenda.
The US is a destructive war machine beast that needs to be constantly fed. Unfortunately, we are going to see tons of US armed forces personnel and Iranians die in a needless, wasteful, illegal war.
wasfgwp 6 days ago [-]
> Military–industrial complex and Israel.
Or general stupidity and incompetence. Trump and his cabinet of clowns thought they could score a big win (I suppose like Russia back in 2022). Now they are stuck in shit and have no clue how to get out.
If the military industrial complex was in control of the US gov. they would stop President Cheeto from antagonizing the rest of NATO and therefore reducing the competitiveness of US arms manufacturers.
You are of course right about Israel Netanyahu is playing cheeto like a fiddle..
pseudohadamard 6 days ago [-]
Yup, it's a dementia patient floundering around, supported by a coterie of nutters and incompetents. You know it's bad when the Iranian leadership is the least crazy party in all this.
6 days ago [-]
whosdatis 6 days ago [-]
"They made things worse.."
..it almost as if you think they came there to make things better
TiredOfLife 6 days ago [-]
> Military–industrial complex
Is this Military–industrial complex in the room with you right now?
DANmode 5 days ago [-]
> On January 17, 1961, in this farewell address, President Dwight Eisenhower warned against the establishment of a "military-industrial complex.
A meeting from 1993 while CNBC says the US is depleting its entire stock of missiles in overseas war,
and that’s an additional war, not just the Russian conflict we’ve proxied ourselves into, and sent tons of gear into, avionic assistance into.
Seriously, I know you’re reading this because of the rapid downvote: you really don’t think the US is in the middle of war?
3 days ago [-]
toomuchtodo 6 days ago [-]
The only way for the US to win is to concede and acquiesce control of the Strait to Iran, but the administration has too much pride and hubris so they’ll keep bullying until stopped.
It’s not a complex geopolitical game, it’s saving face.
I think returning (to some extent) to the status quo is possible but only if Trump’s admin is replaced or at least neutered. Then both Iran and US can make a deal without losing face and expect than US won’t break its word the next day.
MrDrone 6 days ago [-]
I think it's giving more credit than is due to assume there's a strategy. At this stage, it seems pretty clear that a number of people are using insider knowledge of these negotiations to enrich themselves. To me this is representative of a broader pattern of looting American institutions pervasive in this administration.
At the same time, we've purged our military leadership of anyone who said "no" to Trump's plans of antagonizing Iran. A conflict many military thinkers consider un-winnable.
Iran, having spent decades preparing for this type of situation, has the clear advantage and is pressing it hard. Shy of boots on the ground (itself an incredibly bloody and possibly futile avenue) there doesn't seem to be anyway to overcome their hold on the Strait.
There is no secret strategy. The country is led by inept people who believe might makes right, and take every opportunity to enrich themselves. People are bending over backwards to make meaning of this blatant corruption and it is one way we're enabling the destruction of America.
DANmode 6 days ago [-]
Solar-and-nuclear based energy sovereignty, is the most charitable interpretation I’ve developed.
exabrial 6 days ago [-]
Everyone says Israel, which is at least partly true, but the other reason is Ukraine. Iran is a major partner for Russia.
wasfgwp 6 days ago [-]
Yes, Trump certainly did this to help Ukraine. Despite doing as much as he can to minimize US support for Ukraine since he came to office…
Also that implies he (or his cabinet) is capable of understanding basic cause and effect and thinking more than one step ahead and there is absolutely zero evidence that’s the case.
superze 6 days ago [-]
Because politicians rape kids and because the world has been hijackers by Nazi Israel.
jdlshore 6 days ago [-]
It’s Trump, not the USA, and he seems to be ruled by passions rather than logic. Mostly, his goals seem to be to seek wealth and adoration by any means necessary. Now that he’s in it, there’s no way out, and particularly no way out that doesn’t make him look like an even bigger fool. So he’ll stay in it until things get so bad he has no other choice. But that won’t stop him from lying about progress and enriching himself through the resultant stock market swings.
krapp 6 days ago [-]
The American right has wanted war in Iran for decades, it was added to the "Axis of Evil" for that reason. Plenty of Americans support war with Iran in concept at least.
It's true that Trump is deranged and this war is driven partly by ego and partly by the Christian dominionist Department of War's slavish obedience to Israel and fetish for holy war.
But let's be real - gross negligence and incompetence aside war with Iran was always going to happen, somehow, under some pretext.
aprilthird2021 6 days ago [-]
> But let's be real - gross negligence and incompetence aside war with Iran was always going to happen, somehow, under some pretext.
And they prepared for it for a long time. And that preparation has paid off for them. We seem to not have prepared for it in the same way.
wasfgwp 6 days ago [-]
Well no. Iran is not in a great state and is not doing that well. They are just willing to sacrifice and suffer through several magnitudes more than US ever could.
aprilthird2021 4 days ago [-]
They are doing better than before the war because they have unlocked leverage they didn't have before and now have proven survival strategies for their two biggest threats: war with the US/Israel and massive armed protests.
Yes thousands have died from the war. You say they can stomach that more than the US but for them it is a defensive war. The US could stomach such losses in a defensive war, but an offensive war against an enemy that has never once attacked US soil is a different matter
krapp 6 days ago [-]
I suppose when you live under the constant threat of American imperialism, and when the US has already ginned up a revolution in your country, you have to be prepared.
And I suppose when you're the world's last superpower you start believing your own hype and assume you're invincible.
wasfgwp 6 days ago [-]
> The American right has wanted war in Iran
Yeah but at least the brighter ones there like Bolton would have preferred to start a war they knew they could win at least by defining some clear objectives.
The issue is not so much the war (from their perspective) but that US has no clue and at this point what it’s trying to do there.
Compared to Trump Bush was basically Napoleon in how we handled Iran and Afghanistan (at least they knew perfectly well what they wanted to achieve during the conventional part of the war and how to achieve those objectives. Fumbling the aftermath of a war he “wins” is not something Trump will have a chance to do since he’ll never get there)
6 days ago [-]
mrtesthah 6 days ago [-]
Do it, please. The world can't afford to keep burning oil.
AuthAuth 6 days ago [-]
The country making the most pollution is unaffected by this.
mrtesthah 6 days ago [-]
China? No. They have massive exposure to gulf oil production.
yes but their pollution is from coal so it will ultimately make little difference.
HDBaseT 6 days ago [-]
We can't afford to not keep burning oil.
arbitrary_name 6 days ago [-]
yes we can. it will hurt but it will be cheaper than the consequences of continuing.
toomuchtodo 6 days ago [-]
We can. It’ll be hard, but sometimes you gotta buck up and do hard things instead of being lazy. We won’t do it unless we’re forced to, business as usual is simply too cozy for decision makers, politically, in capital markets, and at multinationals making decisions. Wealthy and powerful people want to remain wealthy and powerful, a tale as old as time.
2-3C means potentially >2-4 billion excess deaths over the next ~50 years from climate change. As long as global oil supply chains are low volatility and low risk, we continue on that path.
Ukraine has disabled 30-40% of Russia’s refinery capacity almost entirely with drones, for example.
TLDR it is not bad for the global oil supply chain to experience pain, it’s the primary factor in accelerating electrification and decarbonization.
That's not really the argument they are making I believe. The issue is if you suddenly cut back oil countries pivot to bringing coal back because it's the fastest to scale up.
Some places may scale up natural gas but unless a regional already has a lot of LNG infrastructure in place, a sudden drop in oil means bringing back coal.
And coal is of course far worse than oil.
Gradual sustained economic pressure will push a move to cleaner alternatives but a sudden shock leaves countries with exactly one option: bring back coal so the lights and heat/AC stay on.
mrtesthah 6 days ago [-]
>The issue is if you suddenly cut back oil countries pivot to bringing coal back because it's the fastest to scale up.
That may have been true a couple of decades ago, but as of 2023[1] it was significantly cheaper to build new solar than to continue operating existing coal plants. And building new coal plants takes 5 years.
The issue is that in a lot of places, it's not about building new coal plants. It's refurbishing and restarting old plants that have been shut down in the past decade or two.
Coal is already here but most places worked really hard to move to cleaner sources (oil being one of them) and wind down the existing coal infra.
This is part of the reason why people have been pushing nuclear SMRs (small modular reactors) given they can often be set up in existing coal plants and they just replace the coal part of the plant and reuse the existing turbines, etc since just like coal nuclear is basically a glorified steam boiler.
wasfgwp 6 days ago [-]
It’s not that useful if you don’t have enough storage.
And in more northern latitude you’ll still need to turn those plants back on since just won’t at all for at least a couple of months in winter.
toomuchtodo 6 days ago [-]
Asia is cancelling LNG plans for renewables, and many markets have seen EV sales explode. Coal plants are more expensive than new renewables and batteries, existing generators may run longer, but aren’t going to be built in any material amount.
China, Europe, and the US can build ~25-30M EVs per year with existing manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. That is 1/4th of global annual light vehicle sales. We can deploy ~1TW of solar PV globally annually. The world reached 3TW of total solar PV generating capacity this year. China's energy from coal has declined below 50% this year. Energy storage production continues to ramp right behind renewables. These are straightforward systems problems, there are no blockers or technical limitations.
TLDR Strongly agree existing coal generators might generate more and longer than they otherwise would, but clean tech trajectory will only get pulled more vertical from further oil energy supply shocks.
Solar doesn’t really work in Europe during winter outside pf the southern countries so you still need alternative sources.
shaewest 6 days ago [-]
I feel as if you missed their point. Their point from my understanding is, coal might be more expensive than new renewables/batteries, but it's significantly quicker to get up and running so if you have a choice between quick coal and nothing, coal will be chosen.
triceratops 6 days ago [-]
> coal might be more expensive than new renewables/batteries, but it's significantly quicker to get up and running
How so? I can have a crew out installing panels tomorrow.
wasfgwp 6 days ago [-]
10-100+ MW of panels?
triceratops 6 days ago [-]
That might take a week. You're right much worse /s
shaewest 5 days ago [-]
I haven't looked into this deep enough, but my assumptions are that currently the supplychain for getting and installing these systems takes much longer than coal, which is a much more mature supply chain, and also not limited to China's production. If solar panels were as cheap, quick and available as coal, there'd be literally zero reason why people wouldn't use them over coal, but we know there are enough places that still use coal IE Germany.
wasfgwp 1 days ago [-]
You can have as much solar as you want but without batteries you will still need alternative sources.
Also there is the fact that there simply isn’t enough sun in most of Europe in winter regardless of how many panels you install
triceratops 4 days ago [-]
> If solar panels were as cheap, quick and available as coal, there'd be literally zero reason why people wouldn't use them over coal
I'm not sure what you're talking about. Solar panels are cheap, quick, and available. China is practically giving them away.
toomuchtodo 6 days ago [-]
I am not missing the point. You can deploy hundreds of megawatts of solar and batteries providing firm generation in 12-18 months. You cannot build a coal generator that quickly (usually takes 2-5 years). If you can turn on or up an existing coal generator, yes, faster. If you must build it from scratch, no, slower. Solar and batteries are not only the cheapest form of new generation, they are also the fastest to deploy.
* Since the war in Iran began in February 2026, a surge in oil and gas prices has triggered gas-to-coal switching in Southeast Asia, pushing Asia’s coal benchmark nearly 20% above the pre-war price levels and highlighting the links between the coal, gas and oil markets.
* Gas-to-coal switching also pushed coal prices up after the 2022 gas crisis, when Asia’s coal benchmark surged to a record USD 443 per tonne in September 2023.
* Renewables sit apart from the price volatility of coal, oil and gas, as they do not require ongoing fuel inputs. In 2024, solar was already cheaper than coal in 7 of the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), according to LCOE data.
* The current gas crisis is already causing a decline in LNG demand across ASEAN countries. New ZCA analysis shows that were ASEAN to replace its planned 45 GW gas expansion with coal, costs would rise; in contrast, we found the Association could save USD 4 billion if gas expansion plans were instead replaced with solar and storage solutions by 2030.
* Even in countries with large coal reserves and coal subsidies, including China, renewables are already meeting a significant share of new electricity demand.
You can deploy solar and batteries rapidly, Australia is doing it.
Australia has the highest number of solar panels per capita in the world. Batteries are following suit with government subsidies. Yet, Australia has some of the highest energy prices in the world, its not a fool proof solution.
My comment wasn't even really about coal, it was about oil (and fuel). I'm talking about transport (even public transport) but planes & massive tankers are the big consumers. The original point is simply we cannot just stop ships.
When ships stopped due to the routes being blocked, we pushed ever closer to a recession and people starved and died because they were denied critical produces, equipment, food and medicines all over the world. Not to mention cost of living. This is what I mean by we "cannot afford" to not use oil.
We cannot afford for the routes to be shut, we cannot ban boats, cars, planes without major economic downturn.
wasfgwp 6 days ago [-]
Australia is pretty unique since it’s extremely suitable for solar. Countries in more northern latitudes, especially in Europe (where you need alternative sources in winter regardless of how much solar you (realistically) build) are in a slightly different situation.
Also aren’t wholesale prices in Australia very cheap or often negative? If that’s the case then the issue very high prices isn’t really on the production side but due to taxes/distribution
> That’s the theory, at least. The problem is that those rising middle powers do have alternatives to meet their energy needs, thanks to the growth of renewables. Asia’s LNG-to-power market was already being aggressively undercut on price by solar, batteries and wind. The war in Iran has demonstrated that clean energy is more reliable, too. If Woodside’s main projects ever get built, they’ll find themselves trying to sell into a glutted market, which has lost all appetite for their product.
> Consider the numbers. A new gas-fired power plant in Asia needs to sell electricity for more than $100 per megawatt-hour to break even. Even existing plants, whose construction costs have long since been paid off, need $70/MWh or more if they’re fueled with LNG. Photovoltaic solar power, or PV, can be had for half the new-build price, at around $50/MWh or less. You can even add a battery and wind turbines and have round-the-clock clean electricity for less than what established gas plants are paying just for their fuel and maintenance.
> Have a look at recent announcements from utilities and generators, and you can watch bullish forecasts for Asia’s gas demand being shredded in real time. Just nine days after the start of the Iran war, a company that spent nearly a decade building a 650 megawatt LNG generator in the Philippines announced it was considering abandoning it. The gas turbines are now being sold to the US, where they’ll serve a data-center site in Indiana — not an ideal market for oceangoing LNG ships. A few weeks after that, Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup cancelled plans to build a 4.8 gigawatt LNG power plant which would have been one of the world’s biggest, vowing to replace it with solar, batteries and wind instead. Pakistan has been backing away from LNG for several years, driven by a boom in small-scale solar and surging prices for chilled gas after the 2022 Ukraine war. LNG deals in Bangladesh and South Africa have similarly been cancelled or delayed in recent months. India’s gas generation, meanwhile, has been in decline for nearly two decades.
> These days, gas can’t even make the argument that it’s a quick route to power. All those data centers being built in the US are outbidding Asian utilities in a tight market for gas turbines, meaning the only way to acquire generators is to wait longer, or pay yet more for them. Gas is “much riskier in execution compared to PV and wind,” Abdulhameed Al Muhaidib, Chief Financial Officer of Saudi Arabian power engineer ACWA Power Co., told investors last year.
AngryData 6 days ago [-]
We could if didn't keep pissing our money away and built an entire fleet of nuclear reactors.
They can use this ability to keep oil prices down to sort of back up their strategic goals. They could block a strait themselves while taking Taiwan. They could open the stores for concessions in other ways. They can also use this current Iran War to study how the US handles economic problems like oil-inflation. By having their finger on the scale they can push and pull and see how the US reacts in a war scenario.
If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens, well, that’s part of what China is rapidly building out their domestic chip industry. China will then have a monopoly on that chip production besides what can be produced in the US and Europe, and have achieved reunification. And who is going to stop them? Nobody, based on the evidence and current trajectories.
You can bet that all TSMC chip factories in Taiwan have strategic installs of explosives just for this scenario, China will get nothing, and the US has multiple TSMC chip factories now and will gladly accept Taiwan victims.
The US just pulled temporary status from hundreds of thousands of Hatians, so I wouldn’t be so confident what the future looks like for Taiwanese refugees in the US.
TLDR China is going to build whatever chip technology they need to accomplish their technology and geopolitical goals. They have the resources, the will, and the time.
China’s EUV Lithography Progress: Parsing Signal From Noise - https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/chinas-euv-lithography-progr... - July 2nd, 2026
China begins mass production of homegrown DUV chipmaking tools - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49076684 - July 2026
China Tells Telecom Carriers to Phase Out Foreign Chips by 2027 (2024) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48767466 - July 2026
US tells ASML it is concerned China may have top chip tool - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48602369 - June 2026
Physics PhDs Are Leaving the US at a Record-high Rate - https://www.aip.org/fyi/physics-phds-are-leaving-the-us-at-a... - August 4th, 2026
Top researchers leave USA for the Netherlands - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48816003 - July 2026 (260 comments)
Pushed by Trump policies, top U.S. battery scientist is moving to Singapore - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47985353 - May 2026 (37 comments)
Europe to burned American scientists: We’ll take you in - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47906102 - May 2026 (12 comments)
The Iraq war lasted nearly a decade. Afghanistan 2 decades. And the US accomplished nothing. They made things worse, I don't need to go into details because that is an easy lookup.
That's ultimately the purpose of this war. Israel wants us to fight Iran because "Iran was close to making a nuke", which is an excuse they have been using for nearly 30 years.
Have you seen how much money AIPAC has in US politicians' pockets? Nearly every other office in congress has an Israel flag on their door. Poured $36M (Million) into Haley Stevens. A complete nincompoop and incompetent person, but she would have further supported Israel's agenda.
The US is a destructive war machine beast that needs to be constantly fed. Unfortunately, we are going to see tons of US armed forces personnel and Iranians die in a needless, wasteful, illegal war.
Or general stupidity and incompetence. Trump and his cabinet of clowns thought they could score a big win (I suppose like Russia back in 2022). Now they are stuck in shit and have no clue how to get out.
If the military industrial complex was in control of the US gov. they would stop President Cheeto from antagonizing the rest of NATO and therefore reducing the competitiveness of US arms manufacturers.
You are of course right about Israel Netanyahu is playing cheeto like a fiddle..
..it almost as if you think they came there to make things better
Is this Military–industrial complex in the room with you right now?
As clear of a problem then as now.
https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/president-dwigh...
Cold War is back on, by the way…
and that’s an additional war, not just the Russian conflict we’ve proxied ourselves into, and sent tons of gear into, avionic assistance into.
Seriously, I know you’re reading this because of the rapid downvote: you really don’t think the US is in the middle of war?
It’s not a complex geopolitical game, it’s saving face.
> https://liccardo.house.gov/media/in-the-news/house-dem-sam-l...
At the same time, we've purged our military leadership of anyone who said "no" to Trump's plans of antagonizing Iran. A conflict many military thinkers consider un-winnable.
> https://www.duckworth.senate.gov/news/in-the-news/why-trumps...
Iran, having spent decades preparing for this type of situation, has the clear advantage and is pressing it hard. Shy of boots on the ground (itself an incredibly bloody and possibly futile avenue) there doesn't seem to be anyway to overcome their hold on the Strait.
> https://studies.aljazeera.net/en/analyses/war-no-one-can-win...
There is no secret strategy. The country is led by inept people who believe might makes right, and take every opportunity to enrich themselves. People are bending over backwards to make meaning of this blatant corruption and it is one way we're enabling the destruction of America.
Also that implies he (or his cabinet) is capable of understanding basic cause and effect and thinking more than one step ahead and there is absolutely zero evidence that’s the case.
It's true that Trump is deranged and this war is driven partly by ego and partly by the Christian dominionist Department of War's slavish obedience to Israel and fetish for holy war.
But let's be real - gross negligence and incompetence aside war with Iran was always going to happen, somehow, under some pretext.
And they prepared for it for a long time. And that preparation has paid off for them. We seem to not have prepared for it in the same way.
Yes thousands have died from the war. You say they can stomach that more than the US but for them it is a defensive war. The US could stomach such losses in a defensive war, but an offensive war against an enemy that has never once attacked US soil is a different matter
And I suppose when you're the world's last superpower you start believing your own hype and assume you're invincible.
Yeah but at least the brighter ones there like Bolton would have preferred to start a war they knew they could win at least by defining some clear objectives.
The issue is not so much the war (from their perspective) but that US has no clue and at this point what it’s trying to do there.
Compared to Trump Bush was basically Napoleon in how we handled Iran and Afghanistan (at least they knew perfectly well what they wanted to achieve during the conventional part of the war and how to achieve those objectives. Fumbling the aftermath of a war he “wins” is not something Trump will have a chance to do since he’ll never get there)
https://www.northerntrust.com/europe/insights-research/2026/...
2-3C means potentially >2-4 billion excess deaths over the next ~50 years from climate change. As long as global oil supply chains are low volatility and low risk, we continue on that path.
Ukraine has disabled 30-40% of Russia’s refinery capacity almost entirely with drones, for example.
TLDR it is not bad for the global oil supply chain to experience pain, it’s the primary factor in accelerating electrification and decarbonization.
https://actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erlna/planetary-solvency.p... (page 32 risk impact matrix)
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ukraines-...
Some places may scale up natural gas but unless a regional already has a lot of LNG infrastructure in place, a sudden drop in oil means bringing back coal.
And coal is of course far worse than oil.
Gradual sustained economic pressure will push a move to cleaner alternatives but a sudden shock leaves countries with exactly one option: bring back coal so the lights and heat/AC stay on.
That may have been true a couple of decades ago, but as of 2023[1] it was significantly cheaper to build new solar than to continue operating existing coal plants. And building new coal plants takes 5 years.
1. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/01/30/building-new-solar-pr...
Coal is already here but most places worked really hard to move to cleaner sources (oil being one of them) and wind down the existing coal infra.
This is part of the reason why people have been pushing nuclear SMRs (small modular reactors) given they can often be set up in existing coal plants and they just replace the coal part of the plant and reuse the existing turbines, etc since just like coal nuclear is basically a glorified steam boiler.
And in more northern latitude you’ll still need to turn those plants back on since just won’t at all for at least a couple of months in winter.
China, Europe, and the US can build ~25-30M EVs per year with existing manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. That is 1/4th of global annual light vehicle sales. We can deploy ~1TW of solar PV globally annually. The world reached 3TW of total solar PV generating capacity this year. China's energy from coal has declined below 50% this year. Energy storage production continues to ramp right behind renewables. These are straightforward systems problems, there are no blockers or technical limitations.
TLDR Strongly agree existing coal generators might generate more and longer than they otherwise would, but clean tech trajectory will only get pulled more vertical from further oil energy supply shocks.
China's EV Boom Is Quietly Undermining Oil's Biggest Chokepoint - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-EV-Boom-Is... - August 4th, 2026
China’s LNG and coal demand slows as renewable energy surges - https://www.rinnovabili.net/policy-and-affairs/environmental... - August 3rd, 2026
Renewables To Squeeze Oil And Gas Imports In New Electric Age For Asia - https://www.forbes.com/sites/ianpalmer/2026/06/23/renewables... - June 23rd, 2026
From Australia to Vietnam, the Iran war is fuelling demand for EVs - https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/27/from-australia-t... - April 27th, 2026
EV demand is getting a boost from the Iran war — just as auto giants pivot back to combustion engines - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/evs-autos-energy-oil-iran-wa... - April 2nd, 2026
How so? I can have a crew out installing panels tomorrow.
Also there is the fact that there simply isn’t enough sun in most of Europe in winter regardless of how many panels you install
I'm not sure what you're talking about. Solar panels are cheap, quick, and available. China is practically giving them away.
Citations:
Economics of coal versus renewables in Southeast Asia’s energy crisis - https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/coal-vs-renewables-a... - April 8th, 2026
Key points:
* Since the war in Iran began in February 2026, a surge in oil and gas prices has triggered gas-to-coal switching in Southeast Asia, pushing Asia’s coal benchmark nearly 20% above the pre-war price levels and highlighting the links between the coal, gas and oil markets.
* Gas-to-coal switching also pushed coal prices up after the 2022 gas crisis, when Asia’s coal benchmark surged to a record USD 443 per tonne in September 2023.
* Renewables sit apart from the price volatility of coal, oil and gas, as they do not require ongoing fuel inputs. In 2024, solar was already cheaper than coal in 7 of the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), according to LCOE data.
* The current gas crisis is already causing a decline in LNG demand across ASEAN countries. New ZCA analysis shows that were ASEAN to replace its planned 45 GW gas expansion with coal, costs would rise; in contrast, we found the Association could save USD 4 billion if gas expansion plans were instead replaced with solar and storage solutions by 2030.
* Even in countries with large coal reserves and coal subsidies, including China, renewables are already meeting a significant share of new electricity demand.
Coal Power Is Replaced by Renewables, Batteries, and Modern Electronics - https://www.renewable-ei.org/en/activities/column/REupdate/2... - September 18th, 2025
Australia has the highest number of solar panels per capita in the world. Batteries are following suit with government subsidies. Yet, Australia has some of the highest energy prices in the world, its not a fool proof solution.
My comment wasn't even really about coal, it was about oil (and fuel). I'm talking about transport (even public transport) but planes & massive tankers are the big consumers. The original point is simply we cannot just stop ships.
When ships stopped due to the routes being blocked, we pushed ever closer to a recession and people starved and died because they were denied critical produces, equipment, food and medicines all over the world. Not to mention cost of living. This is what I mean by we "cannot afford" to not use oil.
We cannot afford for the routes to be shut, we cannot ban boats, cars, planes without major economic downturn.
Also aren’t wholesale prices in Australia very cheap or often negative? If that’s the case then the issue very high prices isn’t really on the production side but due to taxes/distribution
Exxon Mobil Should Skip a Vanishing LNG Market - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-06-17/exxon-... - June 17th, 2026
Why $70 Should Be the Most Worrying Number for LNG - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-11/why-70... - May 11th, 2026
> That’s the theory, at least. The problem is that those rising middle powers do have alternatives to meet their energy needs, thanks to the growth of renewables. Asia’s LNG-to-power market was already being aggressively undercut on price by solar, batteries and wind. The war in Iran has demonstrated that clean energy is more reliable, too. If Woodside’s main projects ever get built, they’ll find themselves trying to sell into a glutted market, which has lost all appetite for their product.
> Consider the numbers. A new gas-fired power plant in Asia needs to sell electricity for more than $100 per megawatt-hour to break even. Even existing plants, whose construction costs have long since been paid off, need $70/MWh or more if they’re fueled with LNG. Photovoltaic solar power, or PV, can be had for half the new-build price, at around $50/MWh or less. You can even add a battery and wind turbines and have round-the-clock clean electricity for less than what established gas plants are paying just for their fuel and maintenance.
> Have a look at recent announcements from utilities and generators, and you can watch bullish forecasts for Asia’s gas demand being shredded in real time. Just nine days after the start of the Iran war, a company that spent nearly a decade building a 650 megawatt LNG generator in the Philippines announced it was considering abandoning it. The gas turbines are now being sold to the US, where they’ll serve a data-center site in Indiana — not an ideal market for oceangoing LNG ships. A few weeks after that, Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup cancelled plans to build a 4.8 gigawatt LNG power plant which would have been one of the world’s biggest, vowing to replace it with solar, batteries and wind instead. Pakistan has been backing away from LNG for several years, driven by a boom in small-scale solar and surging prices for chilled gas after the 2022 Ukraine war. LNG deals in Bangladesh and South Africa have similarly been cancelled or delayed in recent months. India’s gas generation, meanwhile, has been in decline for nearly two decades.
> These days, gas can’t even make the argument that it’s a quick route to power. All those data centers being built in the US are outbidding Asian utilities in a tight market for gas turbines, meaning the only way to acquire generators is to wait longer, or pay yet more for them. Gas is “much riskier in execution compared to PV and wind,” Abdulhameed Al Muhaidib, Chief Financial Officer of Saudi Arabian power engineer ACWA Power Co., told investors last year.